Dry bulk market in first positive sign in days

 Owners of dry bulk carriers are well aware of the rollercoaster ride that has been the market for their vessels over the past few years. This trend was once again cemented during the past couple of months, when the industry's benchmark in terms of hiring rates, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) raced to unseen for years new heights, only to retreat close to where it all began, back in late August, early September. Still, after a series of downward sessions, yesterday marked the first positive one, in a sign that the market found its new ground. The BDI ended at 1,504 points, up by 20 on the day, with Capesizes recouperating part of their losses sustained over the past few days. The Baltic Capesize Index was up by 81 points to end at 2,245 points. Panamaxes lost ground though, while smaller carriers were marginally higher. 

In its latest weekly report, commenting on the Capesize market, shipbroker Fearnleys noted that "no light at the end of the tunnel for shellshocked owners, and those who have overplayed their hand during the last rally find the escape door to be a very narrow one. Rate levels have been in free fall - notably on considerable volume - all through the week. Actual daily returns for pacific rounds are presently no more than usd 10k/day, with value down close to 50% w-o-w. Atlantic is equally hard hit, down 40% and coming in at some usd 16k/day. A number of N/B´s are still set to enter market prior year-end, and same has to be factored in by players making their forecasts for the weeks and months to come. Period activity is for natural physical reasons next to nothing, and FFA´s are presently too nervous and without direction to give support going forward", the shipbroker said.

On the Panamax front, Fearnleys said that "it has been a somewhat quiet week sofar and rates have been decreasing in both hemispheres. In the Atlantic we have seen rates dropping continuously as there is a lack of fresh cargoes and the tonnage list is again growing. The Cape market has also had a direct impact on pmax rates with stems being split into pmax stems, but the recent dramatic rate decline for Capes influences the Pmax market with no benefit from these additional cargoes. 
The Ta´s are now paying in the region of Usd 16k and Fhauls bss USG loading in region of Usd 18k + 800k bb. Pacific rounds which are also declining are now being fixed in the 13-15k level depending on delivery. Period market has come down on lack of takers and the FFA mrkt is not giving the same support".

Finally, on the Handy market, "it had an active week however not directly translated into the rates we´ve seen in the Pacific. We see more coal and bauxite cargoes in the market and owners with ships open in EC India or North China are seeing rates in the low teens for same. For the shorter Indo rounds charterers have to pay up due to a tight tonnage list and facing levels ard Usd 16k for either India or China direction. In the Atlantic the mrkt we have seen more activity and firmer rates, especially in the USG. The list of prompt ships able early/mid Nov cancelling is scarse and we expect the rates to continue the firmind tendency, at least for the shorter term", Fearnleys concluded.

In a report this week, Platts, quoting market sources, noted that the absence of sufficient Brazilian iron ore cargoes, was one of the key reasons behing the weakness of the market, especially for Capesize carriers, along the major Pacific routes. But, an anticipated increase in thermal coal imports by India and China could also help boost Capesize freight rates from Australia. Still though, the room for uptick is limited unless we see more [fixtures for] Brazilian [iron ore] cargoes in the market. Mining majors have pretty much secured all the vessels they need and they aren't seeking any more, a Shanghai-based trader said. 

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

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